Let's talk about what's actually happening to your money right now. Not what Trump says is happening. Not what Fox News is spinning. What is actually, demonstrably, provably happening to your wallet in March 2026.
Because the gap between what this administration is telling you and what is true has gotten so wide you could drive a truck through it. A truck you can barely afford to fill up anymore.
as of March 23, 2026
(Fortune / AP)
in just one month
due to Iran war
US household in 2026
(Tax Foundation)
to Americans
as of today
Gas Prices: He Said He'd Cut Them in Half.
Remember that? "Slashing energy costs is among the most important actions we can take to bring down prices for American consumers." Trump said that in February — right before he and Israel attacked Iran.
Gas was already trending up at the start of 2026. Then the Iran war started on February 28th, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of the world's oil supply — and prices went through the roof. The national average hit $3.94 a gallon as of March 23rd. That's up more than a dollar in a single month.
Trump's response? A Truth Social post telling Americans that high gas prices are "a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace" and that "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY."
So there you go. If filling up your tank is hurting you right now — according to the President of the United States — you're a fool.
And even when the war ends? Analysts say prices will ease by only 1 to 3 cents per day. So don't hold your breath. The disruption to shipping and production takes time to recover. Meanwhile, higher gas prices seep into everything else — including the food you're buying at the grocery store, because everything has to be transported.
The national average gas price hit $3.94/gallon on March 23, 2026 — up more than $1 in one month. The Iran war Trump started on Feb. 28 caused oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. The bottom 10% of earners spend nearly 4% of their income on gasoline. Higher gas prices increase the cost of transporting food, meaning grocery prices go up too. Trump promised to cut energy costs in half. He started a war that more than doubled them in a month.
SourcesGroceries: "Food Is Down." No, It Isn't.
Trump has been saying groceries are down since April 2025. "Groceries are down." "Food is down." Over and over. At press conferences. In interviews. On social media.
It was a lie in April 2025. It's still a lie now.
Grocery stores operate on razor-thin profit margins — they're among the first businesses that can't absorb tariff costs and have to pass them directly to you. JPMorgan estimates that businesses that were eating 80% of tariff costs in 2025 are now passing those costs to consumers. Goldman Sachs says nearly 70% of tariff costs will ultimately land on consumers in the form of higher prices.
Coffee is up about 19% from a year ago. Beef and veal up more than 15%. People are maxing out credit cards and using "buy now, pay later" to buy groceries. That's not a roaring economy. That's people drowning slowly and trying to look like they're swimming.
"When you start looking across the perspective from a consumer side, you're seeing people who have maxed out their credit cards, are using 'buy now, pay later' to purchase their groceries. They're making it work for now, but that can fall apart quite quickly." — Julie Margetta Morgan, The Century Foundation
Consumer Price Index data shows grocery costs increased 0.49% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year as of early 2025 — and that was before the full tariff impact hit. Coffee is up ~19%. Beef and veal up 15%+. Goldman Sachs estimates nearly 70% of tariff costs will be passed to consumers. Grocery stores have thin margins and are among the first to raise prices. Americans are now using "buy now, pay later" financing for basic groceries.
SourcesThe DOGE Check. Remember That?
February 2025. Elon Musk was running around dismantling the federal government and Trump floated this great idea: take 20% of whatever DOGE "saved" and send it back to Americans as a dividend check. $5,000 per household, they said. Musk loved it. Trump loved it. It was going to be beautiful.
Here's what actually happened:
The math never worked. To fund $5,000 checks to every qualifying household would require $395 billion. DOGE, as of early March 2026, claims savings of $215 billion — and that number is disputed, unverified, and almost certainly inflated. Even their own reported savings, divided out, comes to about $1,335 per taxpayer. Not $5,000. And that's assuming any of their claimed savings are real, which multiple experts have questioned.
Then Musk left DOGE. Then the proposal went quiet. Then it just... disappeared. No check. No timeline. No legislation. Nothing.
Not one DOGE dividend check has been sent to any American citizen.
Zero DOGE dividend checks have been issued. The proposal never advanced in Congress. Funding $5,000 checks to qualifying households would require $395 billion — far more than DOGE's reported (and disputed) $215 billion in total claimed savings. Musk left DOGE. Republican lawmakers including Speaker Mike Johnson publicly opposed the idea. Economists across the political spectrum called the math impossible. The Heritage Foundation called it "a bad idea." The plan is dead.
SourcesThe $2,000 Tariff Check. Also Not Coming.
OK so the DOGE checks fell apart. But don't worry — Trump had a new idea. Tariff dividend checks! $2,000 per person, funded by all that tariff money foreign countries are supposedly paying. (They're not. We've covered this. Americans pay the tariffs.)
Here's where this one stands: Trump floated it at a cabinet meeting in December 2025. Said the US is collecting "trillions of dollars" in tariffs. (It's not — projected tariff revenue for 2026 is about $207 billion. Not trillions.) Said the checks would go out by mid-2026. Then pushed it to "toward the end of the year." Then the Supreme Court struck down most of his tariffs as unconstitutional in February 2026. Then it became unclear where the money would even come from. Then multiple Republican senators called the idea "insane."
The Tax Foundation ran the numbers: funding $2,000 checks would cost between $279 billion and $607 billion. Total projected tariff revenue for 2026? About $207 billion. The math doesn't work. Not even close. And any checks would require an act of Congress — which isn't happening because even Trump's own party thinks it's a terrible idea.
"A bad idea." "Insane." — Republican senators, on Trump's tariff dividend check proposal. His own party.
No $2,000 tariff checks have been issued or legislated. Projected tariff revenue for 2026 is ~$207 billion — not "trillions." Funding $2,000 checks would cost $279–$607 billion — more than the entire tariff revenue projected. The Supreme Court struck down the bulk of Trump's tariffs as unconstitutional in February 2026, removing a major chunk of the revenue source entirely. Republican senators have publicly called the proposal "insane" and "a bad idea." Any checks would require congressional approval. Multiple Republican senators have already shot it down.
SourcesSo Where Does That Leave You?
Gas nearly $4 a gallon and climbing. Groceries up. Healthcare premiums up 114%. No DOGE check. No tariff check. No stimulus. The tax refund Trump promised would be "the largest of all time" is being eaten by gas prices before most people even get it deposited.
And Trump's response to all of this — his actual, on-record response — is to post on Truth Social calling people who are worried about gas prices "FOOLS," to tell a State of the Union audience that the economy is "roaring like never before," and to have his press secretary declare "President Trump is right" whenever anyone points out that none of this is true.
The checks aren't coming. The prices aren't coming down. And the people responsible for this are busy congratulating themselves on a job well done.
Remember all of this in November.